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Opinion  

Are we to believe latest global warming report?


Thursday, February 15, 2007 6:37 PM CST

  
  

The UN Climate Change panel is asserting — again — that humans are overheating the planet. Again, they have no evidence to support their claim — but they want the U.S. to cut its energy use by perhaps 80 percent just in case. Stabilizing greenhouse gases means no personal cars, no air-conditioning, no vacation travel. Nancy Pelosi says one-third of the Senate want this too.

It’s a remarkably sweeping demand, given that the earth has warmed less than 1 degree C, over 150 years. This on a planet where the ice cores and seabed sediments tell us the climate has been either warming abruptly or cooling suddenly for the past million years.

The first long ice cores from Greenland and Antarctic were brought up in the 1980s. The ice layers showed the earth warming 1n2 degrees roughly every 1,500 years — usually suddenly. The natural warmings often gained half their total strength in a few decades, then waffled erratically for centuries — rather like our planet’s temperature pattern since 1850.

History tells us the coolings, not the warmings, have been the bad part. After the Medieval Warming ended about 1300, Europe was hit by huge storms, gigantic sea floods, crop failures, and plagues of disease.

My big gripe with the IPCC is that they’re still keeping this climate cycle a virtual secret from the public.

What does the IPCC say about hundreds of long-dead trees on California’s Whitewing Mountain that tell us the earth was 3.2 degrees C warmer in the year 1350 than today? In that year, seven different tree species were killed — while growing above today’s tree line — by a volcanic explosion. The trees’ growth rings, species and location confirm that the climate was much warmer than that of today, says C. I. Millar of the U.S. Forest Service, reporting in Quaternary Research, Nov. 27, 2006.
  

The new IPCC report warns us it can’t explain the recent surge of warming from 1976n1998. Therefore, it claims the surge must have been caused by human-emitted CO2. But the IPCC also can’t explain why more than half of the current warming occurred before 1940, before the Industrial Revolution improved global living standards and increased CO2 emissions.

Look at this interesting coincidence: The “inexplicable” l976n1998 surge in global temperature looks very much like the warming surge from 1916n1940. After 1940, we had a 35-year cooling — which the IPCC also can’t explain. But in 1996, researchers discovered a 50n60 year Pacific-wide climate cycle they call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This cycle caused the salmon decline in the Columbia River after 1977. It also causes shifts in sardine and anchovy catches all around the Pacific.

The PDO shifted into a cool phase in 1940, with lots of salmon in the Columbia, until 1977. That’s almost exactly the period of the 1940n76 global cooling. Then the PDO turned warmer, and the Columbia salmon declined — until about 1999. That closely matches the 1976n98 surge in global temperatures.

Does the Pacific climate cycle explain the last two short-term blips on the world’s temperature chart better than humanity’s small contribution to the CO2 that makes up only 0.03 percent of the atmosphere? It is certainly worth exploring more carefully before we make huge changes in our standards of living worldwide.

Past climate warmings haven’t correlated with CO2 changes. The Antarctic ice cores show that after the last four Ice Ages, the temperatures warmed 800 years before the CO2 levels increased in the atmosphere. The warming produced more CO2 in the atmosphere, not the other way around.

It’s worth noting that the environmental movement and the politicians also blamed human activity for the salmon decline. Farming, fishing, and logging were reined in, sending the Pacific Northwest’s rural economies into despair. Now we’ve found the PDO. Is a natural cycle also the answer for the UN climate change panel?

Dennis T. Avery was a senior policy analyst for the U.S. State Department, where he won the National Intelligence Medal of Achievement. He is the co-author, with atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the book Unstoppable Global Warming —Every 1500 Years, available from Rowman & Littlefield. Readers may write him at the Center for Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org) Post Office Box 202, Churchville, VA 24421.

 

  

Comments »

Tag wrote on Jun 22, 2007 12:20 PM:

" I wish that humans weren’t causing global warming, don’t believe everything you hear just because it takes blame off of your actions. We are all responsible to take care of the earth that sustains us. The AG community should be full aware that humans are consuming too much fuel and its severe impact. We need to move on from ideological differences and agree everyone needs a cleaner and brighter future "

Daniel wrote on Jun 13, 2007 3:43 PM:

" Wow Joe you need to get your story strait buddy because global warming is REAL. Any scientist will tell you that CO2 is what is causing global warming and its a fact that what we do in our daily lives(drive a car, use a/c, etc.) cause CO2. Put them together and wow I think we are speeding up global warming and even if it is a normal cycle we were never thrown into previous cycles, the effects of humans on the environment has never been as significant as it is today. It is impossible to halt all negative human activity towards global warming because it is the way we have made our world function, but at least we can minimize our production of CO2 so that we can slow global warming down. Im not asking anyone to sell thier car and walk to work im just telling you to do the little things that we can comprimise so that we can help a greater cause. "

Daniek wrote on Jun 13, 2007 3:43 PM:

" Wow Joe you need to get your story strait buddy because global warming is REAL. Any scientist will tell you that CO2 is what is causing global warming and its a fact that what we do in our daily lives(drive a car, use a/c, etc.) cause CO2. Put them together and wow I think we are speeding up global warming and even if it is a normal cycle we were never thrown into previous cycles, the effects of humans on the environment has never been as significant as it is today. It is impossible to halt all negative human activity towards global warming because it is the way we have made our world function, but at least we can minimize our production of CO2 so that we can slow global warming down. Im not asking anyone to sell thier car and walk to work im just telling you to do the little things that we can comprimise so that we can help a greater cause. "

jack chandler wrote on May 16, 2007 10:07 PM:

" It is appropriate to have a picture of a bull on this page; since Dennis T. Averys’ articles should automatically come up with one. He states no evidence?? The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has conducted over 28,000 scientific studies by over 2500 independent scientists and concluded that Global Warming is real and the majority of it is caused by humans. Their report has been approved by over 100 countries including the United States. I would call that evidence. The Greenhouse gas Carbon Dioxide is over 30% higher than pre-industrial levels and physical evidence is trapped in ice cores extending back over 450,000 thousand years. The time for debate over the causes of global warming has been over for 20 years, it is now time to take serious action to reduce CO2 emissions, our children’s futures depend on our action. "

John wrote on May 16, 2007 2:21 PM:

" Go to Wikipedia and read about Volcano's sound like they have more to do with climate changes then anything else. "

dave in conserv.,ca wrote on May 9, 2007 12:35 AM:

" good speak, As a person who believes that the only thing that is constant is change, I feel that the politico's are up to their old strategy. They like to breed fear. I live in the state where they govern and vote with scare tactics every election while putting honest people out of work and making new government jobs for our so-called protection. I say so what to cutting back. I believe that we are animals like the lower food chain varmits and that if we cut backon energy or change fuels it will just chage the pollutants. So what if millions of us have a mass die off like the other animals do when they overpopulate extinction probably won't come by our own hand. The sun could burn out, explode or a meteor coud knock us off axis and I am not going to bow to a bunch of of theorist. "

dpbrownie wrote on May 5, 2007 11:11 AM:

" Global warming hmmm....my problem is when the U.N. tells our elected officials what we should do, we no longer have representation. Scientists and U.N. panels now control governments and we are morons if we don't believe what they say. It is winning a war without firing a shot. It is odd that we have more information about drugs that have been on the market for 30 years than we do for global warming, and the people that tell us how old the Earth is, no longer include theory in the sentence. I'm not sure you can put FACT in the report that includes theory and speculation of the future. If they will acurately predict the stock market(with fewer variables than mankind) for a year then they will be better at determining our future, as it is it is just science and politics married to do more of what they already do! as a side note: remember when living under power lines was a proven fact to cause problems for your body? 25 yrs later the proven and reliable report was found to be false...hmmm...i know this is different b/c this one is for real, whatever. "

OrdinaryJoe wrote on Apr 20, 2007 4:45 PM:

" I already wondered where all the self proclaimed critics of climate science went... found them! Keep going, people. I am sure you really believe your empty talk here will change the facts and that soon enough we will all see the thermometers go down because of your enormous efforts to shift blame from yourselves to everyone and everything else. Good luck to you all! "

Douglas DC wrote on Apr 9, 2007 4:08 PM:

" Solar Forcing Facist Heretic here.A thing that worries me far more than Global Warming is the Solar Conveyor,is slowing down drastically,the engine that drives the Sun's output-this is partly the reason for the little Ice age. We could be heading for a Maunder Minimum. A little extra Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere may come in handy-look it up.. "

Tinman wrote on Apr 9, 2007 11:40 AM:

" Check your demographics Agist, it's not the USA or Europe that's increasing the population. We don't have much control over the other countries other than offering birth control advice. BTW the air and earth and water of the USA is in better condition than it has been for decades, and we have plenty of fuel resources for a long time to come. Between nuclear, biofuels, tar sands, oil shale, and the oil and natural gas already discovered, fuel is not a problem. Just to clarify things, one of the outright lies that the left likes to tell is that those on the right don't believe global warming is occurring. Of course it's occurring. The cycle of warming and cooling has been going on for untold millenia. There is no stasis in nature, it's always changing one way or the other. Most of us however are convinced that mans contribution to the change is insignificant compared to natures input and so far the AGW fans have not put together a convincing case otherwise. "

agist wrote on Apr 8, 2007 1:08 AM:

" foget what we think we know The fact remains we are populating the earth at an alarming rate, what kinda impact is that gonna cause in 50 years, even if there is no such evidence to back up global warming, at least we should start taking more environmental steps, to keep our air clean to protect our nature and making our home a healthy earth not a dirty and stinky one "

silversurfer wrote on Apr 7, 2007 2:40 PM:

" Okay everyone, quit driving & start conserving. Result: emptier highways and more energy for me...I like it. "

ken wrote on Apr 7, 2007 10:27 AM:

" an attempt by the left to take over. those who believe in "global warming" need to address why the planet mars is warming up too. "

ColoradoCountry wrote on Apr 7, 2007 3:31 AM:

" A critic is the most important part of any situation. They are the people who ask intelligent questions, the ones that think and anylize before swallowing every idea handed to them. That makes other true thinkers stop and think a little while longer before believing everything they read on the internet or a magazine article, and stops them from running with the herd. There's a good deal to be examined both pro and con about the theory of global warming. The truest sadness is that the general public lacks the necessary education to understand all the information included in the scientific studies in detail. Those little details are all too often what ends up strangling the general public. The Earth is over 4.5 billion years old. The study about global warming started in the last century, but it wasn't until 10 years ago, in 1996, that the scientists finally discovered the Pacific Intedecadal Oscillation - one of the most important details to date. That's not enough time to convince me thar science knows all the details, and because of that, that they know without question what they're speaking of. In the meantime, Read the words of scientists like Richard Lindzen and some other global warming skeptics. It won't hurt any of us to buy a bicycle, to walk instead of driving, to get used to living at 100 degree's instead of 70 in the summer and 60 degrees instead of 75 in the winter. Use as little of the energy resources left to us as possible, and use that for growing food. Make what we have last while we prove your our theories accurate before deciding we actually know all there is to know. We can do that. But don't tell me you can be "carbon neutral" by planting a few trees in the Amazon forest for every trip you take while you continue using a jet airplane to travel three times a week complaining about the increase in the carbon output the entire time. Walk your talk. 'An inconvenient truth' was something to consider. I just told you another inconvenient truth. Do with it what you will. "

Renton wrote on Apr 5, 2007 3:34 PM:

" Nobody is asking to put all cars away and a/c's to OFF but instead that we start thinking about doing the same things in a more efficient way... fast ! As for the science "facts" your bringing up, PLEASE stop reading the paper and get the information yourself. Carbon dioxide levels have NEVER in hundreds of thousand of years been half as high as today and the sharp rise started in 1800 (why not start with Wikipedia and follow those links at the bottom). Also, global warming induces climate change which does not mean that its gonna get warmer everywhere. Some places are actually going to get cooler but all major weather patterns will be influenced. One last thing: about 2500 (!) scientists write the IPCC reports and 10 years ago many of them were not convinced that men played a significant role... look at what their saying now ! "

StACase wrote on Apr 1, 2007 10:05 AM:

" With regard to the temperature decline from 1040 to 1975 and the silence from media sources as to why that happened, but those same source want to tell us all what is going to happen next I can only come to the logical conclusion that: The Global Warmists want us to believe that their forsite. is way better than their hindsite. "

George wrote on Mar 31, 2007 5:41 PM:

" I think you are ridiculous, my good man. Buy 'An Inconvenient Truth' and watch it. And live for another 30 years, then call me and tell me what happens. "

Joe wrote on Mar 28, 2007 7:56 PM:

" Take a look at the weather history folks... Yes we are breaking temperature records both High AND low temps... But look when the last records were set... may back in the 30's or earlier... and before that they weren't keeping records of temperatures. The climate is changing no more now than it was 100 years ago when most of the record temps were set.. Mike, your response is a typical terror, dread, fear, statement that the "left" injects into the minds of its followers so it can tax the "heck" out of us making us believe that they are "fixing" what is happening. It has nothing to do with politics although the democrates are the ones who invented it... Algore --- don't get me started... first he invented the internet!! And now he discovered global warming and was given an award for his glitz and light show of a presentation... who gives those awards? liberal actors. Right now we should be preparing ourselves for the disaster if a democrate is elected president. God help us all if it is "Shrillery". P.S. Better turn out those lights in your house, that electricity is made by a plant that burns coal.. and also don't use those candles,, they ruin the ozone layer.. and the refrigerant in your A/C... sell your car and buy a horse.. or that won't work either, because of the Methane in the Horses... "

Mike wrote on Mar 28, 2007 6:08 PM:

" At least "Dennis" is acknoeledging that warming is in progress. Too many folks - right wingers mostly - try to deny it's even happening. "

I Don't believe it wrote on Mar 27, 2007 10:14 PM:

" Can't talk now, I gotta go fill up my SUV. "

bill wrote on Mar 27, 2007 8:24 AM:

" People are free to 'believe whatever they want, freedom of religion, but whether it's true or not is a different matter. Global warming is true, the sun is the source of all life on planet Earth, and all warming. "

Ed wrote on Mar 26, 2007 1:20 PM:

" Jonathan Chait Why the right goes nuclear over global warming Most of the heat is generated by a small number of hard-core ideologues. Last year, the National Journal asked a group of Republican senators and House members: "Do you think it's been proven beyond a reasonable doubt that the Earth is warming because of man-made problems?" Of the respondents, 23% said yes, 77% said no. In the year since that poll, of course, global warming has seized a massive amount of public attention. The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a study, with input from 2,000 scientists worldwide, finding that the certainty on man-made global warming had risen to 90%. So, the magazine asked the question again last month. The results? Only 13% of Republicans agreed that global warming has been proved. As the evidence for global warming gets stronger, Republicans are actually getting more skeptical. Al Gore's recent congressional testimony on the subject, and the chilly reception he received from GOP members, suggest the discouraging conclusion that skepticism on global warming is hardening into party dogma. Like the notion that tax cuts are always good or that President Bush is a brave war leader, it's something you almost have to believe if you're an elected Republican. ADVERTISEMENT How did it get this way? The easy answer is that Republicans are just tools of the energy industry. It's certainly true that many of them are. Leading global warming skeptic Rep. Joe L. Barton (R-Texas), for instance, was the subject of a fascinating story in the Wall Street Journal a couple of years ago. The bottom line is that his relationship to the energy industry is as puppet relates to hand. But the financial relationship doesn't quite explain the entirety of GOP skepticism on global warming. For one thing, the energy industry has dramatically softened its opposition to global warming over the last year, even as Republicans have stiffened theirs. The truth is more complicated — and more depressing: A small number of hard-core ideologues (some, but not all, industry shills) have led the thinking for the whole conservative movement. Your typical conservative has little interest in the issue. Of course, neither does the average nonconservative. But we nonconservatives tend to defer to mainstream scientific wisdom. Conservatives defer to a tiny handful of renegade scientists who reject the overwhelming professional consensus. National Review magazine, with its popular website, is a perfect example. It has a blog dedicated to casting doubt on global warming, or solutions to global warming, or anybody who advocates a solution. Its title is "Planet Gore." The psychology at work here is pretty clear: Your average conservative may not know anything about climate science, but conservatives do know they hate Al Gore. So, hold up Gore as a hate figure and conservatives will let that dictate their thinking on the issue. Meanwhile, Republicans who do believe in global warming get shunted aside. Nicole Gaudiano of Gannett News Service recently reported that Rep. Wayne Gilchrest asked to be on the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming. House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio refused to allow it unless Gilchrest would say that humans have not contributed to global warming. The Maryland Republican refused and was denied a seat. Reps. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) and Vernon Ehlers (R-Mich.), both research scientists, also were denied seats on the committee. Normally, relevant expertise would be considered an advantage. In this case, it was a disqualification; if the GOP allowed Republican researchers who accept the scientific consensus to sit on a global warming panel, it would kill the party's strategy of making global warming seem to be the pet obsession of Democrats and Hollywood lefties. The phenomenon here is that a tiny number of influential conservative figures set the party line; dissenters are marginalized, and the rank and file go along with it. No doubt something like this happens on the Democratic side pretty often too. It's just rare to find the phenomenon occurring in such a blatant way. You can tell that some conservatives who want to fight global warming understand how the psychology works and are trying to turn it in their favor. Their response is to emphasize nuclear power as an integral element of the solution. Sen. John McCain, who supports action on global warming, did this in a recent National Review interview. The technique seems to be surprisingly effective. When framed as a case for more nuclear plants, conservatives seem to let down their guard. In reality, nuclear plants may be a small part of the answer, but you couldn't build enough to make a major dent. But the psychology is perfect. Conservatives know that lefties hate nuclear power. So, yeah, Rush Limbaugh listeners, let's fight global warming and stick it to those hippies! "

Amitabh wrote on Mar 24, 2007 1:34 AM:

" It is comforting to learn after reading this article, that global warming may not be such a new or a manmade phenomenon after all. Suspending any skepticism, let's assume that the author has made a correct observation. But what about the adequacy of energy reserves/ availability to current annual use/ exhaustion? This "margin of safety" ( reserves of all energies divided by annual exhaustion (use))must be getting smaller by the day? How to raise or maintain this buffer level? There is a limit to which one can grow/ enhance one's reserves . To contain the ratio of buffer or safety margin, we have to address the seemingly unstoppable growth for demand. Growth at all times need not be a thing to cherish in the long term. Putting the brakes on growth will involve hugely unpopular decisions worldwide, but then we have to understand that we have to save for the future generations as well ( no altruistic feeling here ; please remember that the distant future generations will be our very souls in a differnt form!) "


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