Farmetrics prediction market helps helps manage risk

Friday, March 30, 2007 3:44 PM CDT

ST. LOUIS — Farmetrics, the first prediction market tailored for U.S. agribusiness, enables participants to learn more about local, state and national crop conditions. Using knowledge and experience in the agricultural industry, participants submit predictions for local planted acreage, yield and harvested acreage at www.farmetrics.com. These predictions are aggregated and shared weekly with participants. Farmetrics provides access to information as local as the county level.

Farmetrics participants can even earn reward points redeemable for prizes at an online catalog. There is no cost to participate or win.

“Gaining real-time, more accurate information about local crop conditions is vital to U.S. agribusiness,” said Bill Towles, who manages farmer focus programs for the Web site’s sponsor, Bunge Global Markets, Inc. “The Farmetrics Prediction Market helps everyone manage risk more closely. It is already proving to be an important tool in understanding supply conditions around the country.”

Currently, participants are making predictions about acreage or harvests of crops such as corn, wheat, cotton and soybeans in their counties of residence. More crops will be considered in the near future, and other planned enhancements may benefit agricultural colleges and farm communities. An expanded discussion forum including new message boards is also under development, enabling members of the agribusiness community to voice their interests and concerns to their peers.

Prediction markets predict outcomes based on the aggregated input of large samples of people knowledgeable in a given field. They have proved highly accurate in elections, sports and business. Typically, they operate as contests in which participants making accurate predictions win prizes. At www.farmetrics.com, participants can earn bonus reward points through active participation and may qualify for incentive prizes without winning at the county or state levels.

To enter, eligible participants must first register at www.farmetrics.com. After registering, participant’s eligibility will be confirmed by Bunge. Participants must be above the age of majority in their state of residence to participate and must meet other eligibility requirements.

If eligible, each week, the participant, using his or her knowledge of the agricultural industry, may input his or her predictions about key statistics such as local-planted corn and soy acreage, yield and harvested acreage. The potential weekly contest winners are determined based on which participants’ predictions are most accurate according to published USDA statistics or other authoritative sources when they become available. Winners can earn reward points that can be used toward prizes ranging from flashlights to travel packages for two.

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